Using machine learning to predict antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients: the multicentre ORCHESTRA cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The study aim was to assess predictors of negative antibody response (AbR) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients after the first booster of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. METHODS: Solid organ transplant recipients receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were prospectively enrolled (March 2021-January 2022) at six hospitals in Italy and Spain. AbR was assessed at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), 3 ± 1 month (t2), and 1 month after third dose (t3). Negative AbR at t3 was defined as an anti-receptor binding domain titre <45 BAU/mL. Machine learning models were developed to predict the individual risk of negative (vs. positive) AbR using age, type of transplant, time between transplant and vaccination, immunosuppressive drugs, type of vaccine, and graft function as covariates, subsequently assessed using a validation cohort. RESULTS: Overall, 1615 SOT recipients (1072 [66.3%] males; mean age±standard deviation [SD], 57.85 ± 13.77) were enrolled, and 1211 received three vaccination doses. Negative AbR rate decreased from 93.66% (886/946) to 21.90% (202/923) from t0 to t3. Univariate analysis showed that older patients (mean age, 60.21 ± 11.51 vs. 58.11 ± 13.08), anti-metabolites (57.9% vs. 35.1%), steroids (52.9% vs. 38.5%), recent transplantation (<3 years) (17.8% vs. 2.3%), and kidney, heart, or lung compared with liver transplantation (25%, 31.8%, 30.4% vs. 5.5%) had a higher likelihood of negative AbR. Machine learning (ML) algorithms showing best prediction performance were logistic regression (precision-recall curve-PRAUC mean 0.37 [95%CI 0.36-0.39]) and k-Nearest Neighbours (PRAUC 0.36 [0.35-0.37]). DISCUSSION: Almost a quarter of SOT recipients showed negative AbR after first booster dosage. Unfortunately, clinical information cannot efficiently predict negative AbR even with ML algorithms.

Host immunological responses facilitate development of SARS-CoV-2 mutations in patients receiving monoclonal antibody treatments.

BackgroundThe role of host immunity in emergence of evasive SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutations under therapeutic monoclonal antibody (mAb) pressure remains to be explored.MethodsIn a prospective, observational, monocentric ORCHESTRA cohort study, conducted between March 2021 and November 2022, mild-to-moderately ill COVID-19 patients (n = 204) receiving bamlanivimab, bamlanivimab/etesevimab, casirivimab/imdevimab, or sotrovimab were longitudinally studied over 28 days for viral loads, de novo Spike mutations, mAb kinetics, seroneutralization against infecting variants of concern, and T cell immunity. Additionally, a machine learning-based circulating immune-related biomarker (CIB) profile predictive of evasive Spike mutations was constructed and confirmed in an independent data set (n = 19) that included patients receiving sotrovimab or tixagevimab/cilgavimab.ResultsPatients treated with various mAbs developed evasive Spike mutations with remarkable speed and high specificity to the targeted mAb-binding sites. Immunocompromised patients receiving mAb therapy not only continued to display significantly higher viral loads, but also showed higher likelihood of developing de novo Spike mutations. Development of escape mutants also strongly correlated with neutralizing capacity of the therapeutic mAbs and T cell immunity, suggesting immune pressure as an important driver of escape mutations. Lastly, we showed that an antiinflammatory and healing-promoting host milieu facilitates Spike mutations, where 4 CIBs identified patients at high risk of developing escape mutations against therapeutic mAbs with high accuracy.ConclusionsOur data demonstrate that host-driven immune and nonimmune responses are essential for development of mutant SARS-CoV-2. These data also support point-of-care decision making in reducing the risk of mAb treatment failure and improving mitigation strategies for possible dissemination of escape SARS-CoV-2 mutants.FundingThe ORCHESTRA project/European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program.

Predictive model for BNT162b2 vaccine response in cancer patients based on blood cytokines and growth factors.

Background: Patients with cancer, especially hematological cancer, are at increased risk for breakthrough COVID-19 infection. So far, a predictive biomarker that can assess compromised vaccine-induced anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunity in cancer patients has not been proposed. Methods: We employed machine learning approaches to identify a biomarker signature based on blood cytokines, chemokines, and immune- and non-immune-related growth factors linked to vaccine immunogenicity in 199 cancer patients receiving the BNT162b2 vaccine. Results: C-reactive protein (general marker of inflammation), interleukin (IL)-15 (a pro-inflammatory cytokine), IL-18 (interferon-gamma inducing factor), and placental growth factor (an angiogenic cytokine) correctly classified patients with a diminished vaccine response assessed at day 49 with >80% accuracy. Amongst these, CRP showed the highest predictive value for poor response to vaccine administration. Importantly, this unique signature of vaccine response was present at different studied timepoints both before and after vaccination and was not majorly affected by different anti-cancer treatments. Conclusion: We propose a blood-based signature of cytokines and growth factors that can be employed in identifying cancer patients at persistent high risk of COVID-19 despite vaccination with BNT162b2. Our data also suggest that such a signature may reflect the inherent immunological constitution of some cancer patients who are refractive to immunotherapy.

Clinical Impact of Monoclonal Antibodies in the Treatment of High-Risk Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections: The ORCHESTRA Prospective Cohort Study.

The clinical impact of anti-spike monoclonal antibodies (mAb) in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) breakthrough infections is unclear. We present the results of an observational prospective cohort study assessing and comparing COVID-19 progression in high-risk outpatients receiving mAb according to primary or breakthrough infection. Clinical, serological and virological predictors associated with 28-day COVID-19-related hospitalization were identified using multivariate logistic regression and summarized with odds ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). A total of 847 COVID-19 outpatients were included: 414 with primary and 433 with breakthrough infection. Hospitalization was observed in 42/414 (10.1%) patients with primary and 8/433 (1.8%) patients with breakthrough infection (p < 0.001). aOR for hospitalization was significantly lower for breakthrough infection (aOR 0.12, 95%CI: 0.05-0.27, p < 0.001) and higher for immunocompromised status (aOR:2.35, 95%CI:1.08-5.08, p = 0.003), advanced age (aOR:1.06, 95%CI: 1.03-1.08, p < 0.001), and male gender (aOR:1.97, 95%CI: 1.04-3.73, p = 0.037). Among the breakthrough infection group, the median SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgGs was lower (p < 0.001) in immunocompromised and elderly patients >75 years compared with that in the immunocompetent patients. Our findings suggest that, among mAb patients, those with breakthrough infection have significantly lower hospitalization risk compared with patients with primary infection. Prognostic algorithms combining clinical and immune-virological characteristics are needed to ensure appropriate and up-to-date clinical protocols targeting high-risk categories.

Clinical efficacy of different monoclonal antibody regimens among non-hospitalised patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 at high risk for disease progression: a prospective cohort study.

This study aimed to compare the clinical progression of COVID-19 in high-risk outpatients treated with the monoclonal antibodies (mAb) bamlanivimab, bamlanivimab-etesevimab and casirivimab-imdevimab. This is an observational, multi-centre, prospective study conducted from 18 March to 15 July 2021 in eight Italian tertiary-care hospitals including mild-to-moderate COVID-19 outpatients receiving bamlanivimab (700 mg), bamlanivimab-etesevimab (700-1400 mg) or casirivimab-imdevimab (1200-1200 mg). All patients were at high risk of COVID-19 progression according to Italian Medicines Agency definitions. In a patient subgroup, SARS-CoV-2 variant and anti-SARS-CoV-2 serology were analysed at baseline. Factors associated with 28-day all-cause hospitalisation were identified using multivariable multilevel logistic regression (MMLR) and summarised with adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). A total of 635 outpatients received mAb: 161 (25.4%) bamlanivimab, 396 (62.4%) bamlanivimab-etesevimab and 78 (12.2%) casirivimab-imdevimab. Ninety-five (15%) patients received full or partial SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. The B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant was detected in 99% of patients. Baseline serology showed no significant differences among the three mAb regimen groups. Twenty-eight-day all-cause hospitalisation was 11.3%, with a significantly higher proportion (p 0.001) in the bamlanivimab group (18.6%), compared to the bamlanivimab-etesevimab (10.1%) and casirivimab-imdevimab (2.6%) groups. On MMLR, aORs for 28-day all-cause hospitalisation were significantly lower in patients receiving bamlanivimab-etesevimab (aOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.30-0.88 p 0.015) and casirivimab-imdevimab (aOR 0.14, 95% CI 0.03-0.61, p 0.009) compared to those receiving bamlanivimab. No patients with a history of vaccination were hospitalised. The study suggests differences in clinical outcomes among the first available mAb regimens for treating high-risk COVID-19 outpatients. Randomised trials are needed to compare efficacy of mAb combination regimens in high-risk populations and according to circulating variants.

Evaluation of the Kinetics of Antibody Response to COVID-19 Vaccine in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: The Prospective Multicenter ORCHESTRA Cohort.

Previous studies assessing the antibody response (AbR) to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients are limited by short follow-up, hampering the analysis of AbR kinetics. We present the ORCHESTRA SOT recipients cohort assessed for AbR at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), and within 3 ± 1 month (t2) after the first dose. We analyzed 1062 SOT patients (kidney, 63.7%; liver, 17.4%; heart, 16.7%; and lung, 2.5%) and 5045 health care workers (HCWs). The AbR rates in the SOTs and HCWs were 52.3% and 99.4%. The antibody levels were significantly higher in the HCWs than in the SOTs (p < 0.001). The kinetics showed an increase (p < 0.001) in antibody levels up to 76 days and a non-significant decrease after 118 days in the SOT recipients versus a decrease up to 76 days (p = 0.02) and a less pronounced decrease between 76 and 118 days (p = 0.04) in the HCWs. Upon multivariable analysis, liver transplant, ≥3 years from SOT, mRNA-1273, azathioprine, and longer time from t0 were associated with a positive AbR at t2. Older age, other comorbidities, mycophenolate, steroids, and impaired graft function were associated with lower AbR probability. Our results may be useful to optimize strategies of immune monitoring after COVID-19 vaccination and indications regarding timing for booster dosages calibrated on SOT patients' characteristics.

Proline-specific peptidase activities (DPP4, PRCP, FAP and PREP) in plasma of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 patients experience several features of dysregulated immune system observed in sepsis. We previously showed a dysregulation of several proline-selective peptidases such as dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4), fibroblast activation protein alpha (FAP), prolyl oligopeptidase (PREP) and prolylcarboxypeptidase (PRCP) in sepsis. In this study, we investigated whether these peptidases are similarly dysregulated in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Fifty-six hospitalized COVID-19 patients and 32 healthy controls were included. Enzymatic activities of DPP4, FAP, PREP and PRCP were measured in samples collected shortly after hospital admission and in longitudinal follow-up samples. RESULTS: Compared to healthy controls, both DPP4 and FAP activities were significantly lower in COVID-19 patients at hospital admission and FAP activity further decreased significantly in the first week of hospitalization. While PRCP activity remained unchanged, PREP activity was significantly increased in COVID-19 patients at hospitalization and further increased during hospital stay and stayed elevated until the day of discharge. CONCLUSION: The changes in activities of proline-selective peptidases in plasma are very similar in COVID-19 and septic shock patients. The pronounced decrease in FAP activity deserves further investigation, both from a pathophysiological viewpoint and as its utility as a part of a biomarker panel.

Activation of the Carboxypeptidase U (CPU, TAFIa, CPB2) System in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection Could Contribute to COVID-19 Hypofibrinolytic State and Disease Severity Prognosis.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a viral lower respiratory tract infection caused by the highly transmissible and pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory-syndrome coronavirus-2). Besides respiratory failure, systemic thromboembolic complications are frequent in COVID-19 patients and suggested to be the result of a dysregulation of the hemostatic balance. Although several markers of coagulation and fibrinolysis have been studied extensively, little is known about the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the potent antifibrinolytic enzyme carboxypeptidase U (CPU). Blood was collected longitudinally from 56 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and 32 healthy controls. Procarboxypeptidase U (proCPU) levels and total active and inactivated CPU (CPU+CPUi) antigen levels were measured. At study inclusion (shortly after hospital admission), proCPU levels were significantly lower and CPU+CPUi antigen levels significantly higher in COVID-19 patients compared to controls. Both proCPU and CPU+CPUi antigen levels showed a subsequent progressive increase in these patients. Hereafter, proCPU levels decreased and patients were, at discharge, comparable to the controls. CPU+CPUi antigen levels at discharge were still higher compared to controls. Baseline CPU+CPUi antigen levels (shortly after hospital admission) correlated with disease severity and the duration of hospitalization. In conclusion, CPU generation with concomitant proCPU consumption during early SARS-CoV-2 infection will (at least partly) contribute to the hypofibrinolytic state observed in COVID-19 patients, thus enlarging their risk for thrombosis. Moreover, given the association between CPU+CPUi antigen levels and both disease severity and duration of hospitalization, this parameter may be a potential biomarker with prognostic value in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Blood Cytokine Analysis Suggests That SARS-CoV-2 Infection Results in a Sustained Tumour Promoting Environment in Cancer Patients.

Cytokines, chemokines, and (angiogenic) growth factors (CCGs) have been shown to play an intricate role in the progression of both solid and haematological malignancies. Recent studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 infection leads to a worse outcome in cancer patients, especially in haematological malignancy patients. Here, we investigated how SARS-CoV-2 infection impacts the already altered CCG levels in solid or haematological malignancies, specifically, whether there is a protective effect or rather a potentially higher risk for major COVID-19 complications in cancer patients due to elevated CCGs linked to cancer progression. Serially analysing immune responses with 55 CCGs in cancer patients under active treatment with or without SARS-CoV-2 infection, we first showed that cancer patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 54) demonstrate elevated levels of 35 CCGs compared to the non-cancer, non-infected control group of health care workers (n = 42). Of the 35 CCGs, 19 were common to both the solid and haematological malignancy groups and comprised previously described cytokines such as IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1Ra, IL-17A, and VEGF, but also several less well described cytokines/chemokines such as Fractalkine, Tie-2, and T cell chemokine CTACK. Importantly, we show here that 7 CCGs are significantly altered in SARS-CoV-2 exposed cancer patients (n = 52). Of these, TNF-α, IFN-ß, TSLP, and sVCAM-1, identified to be elevated in haematological cancers, are also known tumour-promoting factors. Longitudinal analysis conducted over 3 months showed persistence of several tumour-promoting CCGs in SARS-CoV-2 exposed cancer patients. These data demonstrate a need for increased vigilance for haematological malignancy patients as a part of long COVID follow-up.

A dynamic mucin mRNA signature associates with COVID-19 disease presentation and severity.

BACKGROUNDSARS-CoV-2 infection induces mucin overexpression, further promoting disease. Given that mucins are critical components of innate immunity, unraveling their expression profiles that dictate the course of disease could greatly enhance our understanding and management of COVID-19.METHODSUsing validated RT-PCR assays, we assessed mucin mRNA expression in the blood of patients with symptomatic COVID-19 compared with symptomatic patients without COVID-19 and healthy controls and correlated the data with clinical outcome parameters. Additionally, we analyzed mucin expression in mucus and lung tissue from patients with COVID-19 and investigated the effect of drugs for COVID-19 treatment on SARS-CoV-2-induced mucin expression in pulmonary epithelial cells.RESULTSWe identified a dynamic blood mucin mRNA signature that clearly distinguished patients with symptomatic COVID-19 from patients without COVID-19 based on expression of MUC1, MUC2, MUC4, MUC6, MUC13, MUC16, and MUC20 (AUCROC of 91.8%; sensitivity and specificity of 90.6% and 93.3%, respectively) and that discriminated between mild and critical COVID-19 based on the expression of MUC16, MUC20, and MUC21 (AUCROC of 89.1%; sensitivity and specificity of 90.0% and 85.7%, respectively). Differences in the transcriptional landscape of mucins in critical cases compared with mild cases identified associations with COVID-19 symptoms, respiratory support, organ failure, secondary infections, and mortality. Furthermore, we identified different mucins in the mucus and lung tissue of critically ill COVID-19 patients and showed the ability of baricitinib, tocilizumab, favipiravir, and remdesivir to suppress expression of SARS-CoV-2-induced mucins.CONCLUSIONThis multifaceted blood mucin mRNA signature showed the potential role of mucin profiling in diagnosing, estimating severity, and guiding treatment options in patients with COVID-19.FUNDINGThe Antwerp University Research and the Research Foundation Flanders COVID-19 funds.

Immunoglobin G/total antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2: A prospective cohort study of ambulatory patients and health care workers in two Belgian oncology units comparing three commercial tests.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is interfering heavily with the screening, diagnosis and treatment of cancer patients. Better knowledge of the seroprevalence and immune response after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in this population is important to manage them safely during the pandemic. METHODS: 922 cancer patients, 100 non-cancer patients and 94 health care workers (HCW) attending the Multidisciplinary Oncology Unit of Antwerp University Hospital from 24th of March 2020 till 31st of May 2020, and the Oncology Unit of AZ Maria Middelares Hospital, Ghent, from 13th of April 2020 till 31st of May 2020 participated in the study. The Alinity® (A; Abbott) and Liaison® (D; DiaSorin) commercially available assays were used to measure SARS-CoV-2 IgG, while total SARS-CoV-2 Ig was measured by Elecsys® (R; Roche). RESULTS: In the overall study population IgG/total SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were found in respectively 32/998 (3.2%), 68/1020 (6.7%), 37/1010 (3.7%) and of individuals using the A, D or R test. Forty-six out of 618 (7.4%) persons had a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test. Seroprevalence in cancer patients (A:2.2%, D:6.2%, R:3.0%), did not significantly differ from that in non-cancer patients (A:1.1%, D:5.6%, R:0.0%), but was lower than the HCW (A:13%, D:12%, R:12%; respectively Fisher's exact test p = 0.00001, p = 0.046, p = 0.0004). A positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR was found in 6.8% of the cancer patients, 2.3% of the non-cancer patients and 28.1% of the HCW (Fisher's exact test p = 0.0004). Correlation between absolute values of the different Ig tests was poor in the cancer population. Dichotomising a positive versus negative test result, the A and R test correlated well (kappa 0.82 p McNemar test = 0.344), while A and D and R and D did not (respectively kappa 0.49 and 0.57; result significantly different p McNemar test = <0.0001 for both). The rate of seroconversion (>75%) and median absolute antibody levels (A: 7.0 versus 4.7; D 74.0 versus 26.6, R: 16.34 versus 7.32; all >P Mann Whitney U test = 0.28) in cancer patients and HCW with a positive RT-PCR at least 7 days earlier did not show any differences. However, none (N = 0/4) of the patients with hematological tumours had seroconversion and absolute antibody levels remained much lower compared to patients with solid tumours (R: 0.1 versus 37.6, p 0.003; D 4.1 versus 158, p 0.008) or HCW (all p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: HCW were at high risk of being infected by SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the pandemic. Seroprevalence in cancer patients was low in the study period. Although Ig immune response in cancer patients with solid tumours does not differ from healthy volunteers, patients with hematological tumours have a very poor humoral immune response. This has to be taken into account in future vaccination programmes in this population. SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests have divergent results and seem to have little added value in the management of cancer patients.

Histopathological findings in the advanced natural evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

We are reporting a case of natural evolution and pathological data from a young person that was diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). All data has been collected from the autopsy of a 30-year-old female, which was performed by the Department of Forensic Medicine from Emergency County Hospital, Drobeta Turnu Severin, Mehedinti County, Romania. The infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on the lung tissue which was obtained during autopsy. This case provides the opportunity to study the natural evolution of COVID-19 pneumonia in a young person with clinical signs of pneumonia but without associated comorbidities. The patient had not received any treatment. The histopathological examination of the lung revealed a process of productive proliferation, proteinaceous and fibrin-macrophagic interalveolar spaces exudate, and lesions consistent with vasculitis. In the heart, we identified a cardiac thrombus. These changes are likely to suggest an advanced natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection.